Tuesday, August 23, 2005

• Broad area of low pressure in Bahamas
• Initial forecast call for a track west over southern Florida with possibility of reaching hurricane status before landfall in Florida. SST in region of Katrina.

Wednesday, August 24, 2005

• Better organized but difficult to forecast intensity.
• Track takes storm across Florida into eastern Gulf then moving northward.

• Katrina may intensify to hurricane status before landfall in Florida
• Track forecast across Florida into eastern Gulf in 72 hours.

• Slow forward movement makes flooding a significant threat in Florida.
• Model forecasts vary on long-term track but GFDL model takes track over New Orleans.

Thursday, August 25, 2005

• Intensity expected to increase to Category 1 prior to landfall in Florida
• Forecast: Track moves Katrina across southern Florida; Expected to increase in stremgth over Gulf
• Must disagreement regarding landfall location along Gulf Coast - official forecast is Florida panhandle

• Expected to weaken over Florida
• Models have Katrina strengthening to major hurricane (Category 3+) in Gulf with central pressure dropping to 961 mb.
• "All indications are that Katrina will be a dangerous hurricane in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 3 days."

Friday, August 26, 2005

• Center of Katrina crossed coast of Florida into the warm Gulf waters

• Katrina tracked more southwestward over Florida and only spent 7 hours over land (mostly over moist Everglades).
• Warnings issued by TPC that Katrina is expected to become a major hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast

• Rapid intensification is occurring and Katrina is expected to reach Category 4 Status by 72 hours.

• Models have shifted track for landfall westward
• After 36 hours Katrina will move over the warm Gulf Loop Current in a region with low shear and will strengthen to Category 4 before landfall.

• Forecast model guidance is in more agreement and has Katrina making landfall between eastern coast of Louisiana and coast of Mississippi.

Satruday, August 27, 2005

• Eye is visibly clear on satellite
• Large size of Katrina may explain why winds have not "caught up" to central pressure
• "Katrina is located within an atmospheric environment that seemingly cannot get much more conducive for strengthening."

• Landfall forecasts range from Morgan City, Louisiana to Pensacola, Florida.
• Forecasters acknowledge that Katrina could strengthen to Category 5.
• Hurricane Watch is issued for southeastern Louisiana including New Orleans

• GFS and GFDL models have led an overall shift in landfall to southeast Louisiana
• Katrina expected to strengthen upon finishing concentric eyewall cycle; may go through another eyewall cyclone prior to landfall
• Expanded Hurricane Watch for northern Gulf Coast

• "Katrina is expected to be an intense and dangerous hurricane heading toward the north central Gulf Coast...and this has to be taken very seriously."

Sunday, August 28, 2005

• Central pressure 935 mb; expected wind speed at landfall is 130 kts (strong Category 4)
• May reach Category 5 status before landfall.

• Eyewall replacements make exact intensity at landfall uncertain
• "Katrina is expected to be a devastating Category 4 or 5 hurricane at landfall."

• As strong as Hurricanea Camille (1969) but much larger.
• Landfall point expected to be anywhere from southeastern Louisiana to Mississippi Coast.
• Hurricane force winds expected 150 nautical miles inland when Katrina makes landfall

• Central pressure 902 mb - fourth lowest record for Atlantic basicn hurricane

• Possible weakening of Katrina prior to landfall is forecast due to eyewall replacement, however, that also means strong winds will extend over a much larger area.

Monday, August 29, 2005

• Landfall within the hour expected along southern coast of Plaquemines Parish near Empire and Buras Louisiana
• "Storm expected in range of 18 to 22 feet, locally as high as 28 feet."
• "Some levees in Greater New Orleans area could be overtopped."
• "Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, isolated maximums of 15 inches."

• Currently making second landfall near Louisiana-Mississippi border.
• Expected to track north-northeast and become extratropical in 48 hours.

• Threat of strong inland winds and inland flooding remains.

• Should lose tropical characteristics within 36 hours.
• Tracking north-northeast between mid-level high pressure off east Florida coast and mid-level low pressure over Great Lakes.

Tuesday, August 30, 2005

• Katrina has sheared apart; no official reports of tropical storm force winds