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Forecasting & Simulating Severe Weather

Online 4.1: Uncertainties in Numerical Prediction Models: Examine a forecast that illustrates the uncertainties that are inherent in numerical weather prediction. View animations of 300mb and 850mb upper air forecast maps, sea level pressure forecast maps and the verification of the forecast.

Online 4.2: An Example of Ensemble Forecasting - The Spaghetti Plot: Examine a 14-day, 23 member ensemble forecast of 500mb heights. Early in the forecast period the lines remain relatively close together, indicating that the ensemble members have more agreement in the forecast with increasing disagreement as the forecast progresses.

Courtesy of Climate Diagnostics Center/NOAA/NCEP

Online 4.3: Using Models to Isolate Features of Storms: View two short movies that show convection developing in different shear environments. The effect of a particular variable or parameter such as wind shear can be determined by varying that parameter in two, otherwise similar, simulations.

Online 4.4: Studying Severe Weather through Numerical Models: Observe the inner-workings of a hurricane, supercell thunderstorm and squall line by viewing animations of the results of a research model. High resolution, small scale models allow for the exploration of weather phenomena from perspectives otherwise unavailable.

Related Web Sites
NWS Maps and Models Examine the same maps and model output that meteorologists from the National Weather Service use to make forecasts.
Global Models from the Navy Explore output from models used by the U.S. Navy to forecast conditions around the world.
Forecast Discussions from HPC Read forecast discussions issued by the Hydrologic Prediction Center
Ensemble Forecast Products Learn more about ensemble forecasting and examine ensemble model output for various regions around the globe.

Department of Atmospheric Sciences Severe and Hazardous Weather at Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois
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